U.S. Middle Market Performance Shows Sustained Stability

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 8% during the first two months of the third quarter of 2024. Revenue grew 5% during the same period.

Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Solid revenue and earnings growth continued for companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index for the eighth consecutive quarter. The cost discipline and pricing power we highlighted throughout the recent inflationary period continues to pay dividends for many companies in our sample, as aggregate earnings growth materially outpaced aggregate revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter. These encouraging trends come with a caveat. Dispersion in operating performance is increasing, both in our sample and in the broader credit market. Even in a strong sector like Technology, which posted another quarter of double-digit earnings growth, there’s a striking performance gap between mission-critical enterprise software providers with dominant market share and others in more fragmented and competitive markets. We expect to see greater performance dispersion in the coming period, both within and across sectors.”

Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “We noted in last quarter’s report that the balance of headwinds and tailwinds facing consumers would be an important dynamic for investors to watch in the second half of 2024. Our sample of Consumer companies painted a mixed picture in Q3 2024, much like recent macroeconomic data. Solid revenue and EBITDA growth, in aggregate and in most sectors in our sample, suggests consumer spending continued to surpass low expectations, while a slight decline in EBITDA year-over-year indicates that wage growth and labor market strength continued to put pressure on margins. These mixed signals, together with increased dispersion in operating performance, illustrate that while many companies are adapting well to this environment, the lowest-performers are falling further behind. Our data suggests that skill at avoiding problem credits, especially for firms that are vulnerable to relatively high interest costs, and at managing problems effectively when they occur, are likely to be key drivers of investor returns in the coming period.”

The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be tracked.

The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry segment data.

We believe the results (1) are representative of the general performance of middle market companies, which are a major contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily compared to the performance of the public companies that make up major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic performance of the U.S. economy and (4) provide timely information for the investment community.

The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries. Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents and by industry segment. Given the index’s limited exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted” versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned sectors.

About the Golub Capital Middle Market Report

The Golub Capital Middle Market Report analyzes the results of the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 privately owned companies in the Golub Capital loan portfolio for the first two months of each calendar quarter. It compares these results to the financial performance of well-known market indexes, including the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. The GCAI is produced by Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I. Altman. Effective Q2 2022, the GCAI excludes Golub Capital portfolio companies that have recurring revenue-based credit facilities. The data referenced herein may not reflect all companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time periods indicated.

About Golub Capital

Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender and experienced private credit manager. We specialize in delivering reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies backed by private equity sponsors. Our sponsor finance expertise also forms the foundation of our Broadly Syndicated Loan and Credit Opportunities investment programs. We nurture long-term, win-win partnerships that inspire repeat business from private equity sponsors and investors.

As of July 1, 2024, Golub Capital had over 950 employees and over $70 billion of capital under management, a gross measure of invested capital including leverage. The firm has offices in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit golubcapital.com.

About Dr. Edward I. Altman

A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150 articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association, was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Important Disclosure

The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions about future events, future performance, or future financial conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been verified independently by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party information.

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