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October 14, 2024

Source: S&P Global

Middle-market transactions are powering a rebound in exits as private equity-backed IPOs track for their best year since 2021.

Buyout funds tallied 1,700 exits this year through end of the third quarter, a total 10% higher than the 1,530 exits through recorded in the same period a year ago, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of Preqin data. Private equity-backed IPOs and private placements, a related exit route, totaled 155 through three quarters of 2024, just one deal shy of the full-year 2023 total.

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Private equity's rising exit count comes with a caveat: the size of the average deal shrank to $477.73 million over the first three quarters of 2024, down 36.7% from the 2023 average of $754.78 million, according to Preqin data.

Declining deal size indicates smaller deals in the middle market are driving exits, said Kevin Desai, private equity leader for PwC's advisory business.

"The ability to get things done at the large-cap size is a little bit harder. The quality of the assets we're seeing is not as strong, and they're spending a lot more time on carveouts than whole [company] sales," Desai said.

IPO window

With a looming US presidential election injecting fresh uncertainty into public markets, it may be some time before big-ticket private equity-backed IPOs return in force, said Jeremy Swan, managing principal in advisory CohnReznick's financial sponsors and financial services industry practice.

But the growing number of firms testing the IPO waters "bodes well" for the large-cap private equity (PE) firms and tech-focused investors most likely to choose that exit route, he added.

The IPO window continued to widen in third quarter, with buyout funds taking 44 companies public on global exchanges, according to Preqin data. That was the industry's highest quarterly IPO total since fourth quarter 2021, as well as an 18.9% jump over the 37 PE-backed IPOs recorded in second quarter 2024.

Exit momentum overall, however, appeared to slow in third quarter. The data tracked 576 exits globally in third quarter compared to 574 in the second quarter.

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